Self-Expression as an Index Fund?
Are we predictable commodities and consumers? How is fashion like the stock market, and how do our contexts shape our creativity? 
Okay, okay. I won’t be the first to claim that I’m a fashion girlie (although one can aspire) nor am I anywhere near knowledgeable on stocks or the economy, but I think anyone (especially in creative spaces) understands that we express ourselves on the daily, with fashion and external presentation being some of our primary modes.
Anyone with style will tell you this without saying a word: this is who they are, how they’re feeling, what they’re excited about, what they’re inspired by, what mood they’re trying to evoke, what energy they’re choosing to present. Self-expression is everywhere and in everything. Hair, nails, jewelry, makeup, and of course, clothes. As someone who admires the expert curation of fabrics, textures, patterns, colors, and motifs in an outfit, hearing about the hemline index theory on Instagram sent me into a series of thoughts. What do these trends tell us about how self-expression is impacted by external and uncontrollable factors? Can our externalizations of creativity be that easily predicted?
But what is the hemline index theory?
It’s an economic theory that suggests skirt lengths rise and fall in conjunction with economic trends, specifically the stock market. Most versions of this theory hypothesize that skirt lengths shorten during periods of prosperity and lengthen during economic recessions. I’ve heard various explanations of why this is, but many correlate feelings of liberation, confidence, and freedom (shorter hemlines) during periods of economic prosperity, and the opposite effect during periods of downturn. Some trace it back to one of the first observable trends in modern fashion history: the short flapper skirts of the 1920s shifting to the longer skirts during the 1930s and the aftermath of the Great Depression. Some theorize that it was cheaper to wear longer skirts because they would hide a lack of expensive silk stockings, which were no longer affordable. The theory has been debunked many times over many years, but is still often used to point toward more complex relationships between fashion, societal conditions, and economics.
In more recent times, some are using this theory to explain the comeback of maxi and midi skirts, and thread throughlines to how this may be part of a wider trend toward conservatism in the 2020s. Some say this can be observed with conservatism and fashion for women in the 50s, for example, where traditional gender roles, conformity to domestic spheres, and expectations for homemaking dominated female life.
The Lipstick Index Theory functions similarly.
It suggests that, in a period of economic downturn or recession, lipstick sales and other ‘affordable luxury’ sales are likely to increase.
Vice versa, the theory also suggests that increased sales of lipstick and other lower-cost luxury items may signal an economic downturn. This was first observed by Leonard Lauder at Estee Lauder during the 2000s economic downturn following 9/11. It is hypothesized that during economic hardship, many consumers still desire the feeling of being able to attain luxuries and indulgences, so they turn to lower-cost luxuries (e.g. nail polish and lipstick) rather than traditional luxury fashion and accessories. People may splurge on luxury cosmetics or ‘personal care’ items they usually wouldn’t rather than on bags and clothing that could break the bank. This allows feelings of wellness, security, and luxury in one’s life despite surrounding economic conditions. We still want to feel like we have the breathing room to be creative and indulgent, which is difficult to do within the boundaries of our finances.
Both of these patterns make inherent sense to me, not because human creativity is predictable, but because, despite our creative efforts, we all belong within and are shaped by the contexts in which we live.
My easiest reference points are authors. We wouldn’t have the novels of Ernest Hemingway or George Orwell if the world didn’t experience the harrowing effects of war or fascism, nor would we have the novels of F. Scott Fitzgerald without the economic boom of the 1920s. This could be argued about art born out of many historical contexts, if not all: The Renaissance, the Counter Culture of the 60s, the Harlem Renaissance. Art is shaped by history and shapes history all at once.
Artists always respond to the current moment and shape the next. They are defined by their present and their past, and pave new cultures and movements into existence.
All this to say: our self-expression and creativity are not cynically limited or predictable like stocks on an index fund. These are just theories after all, and nothing can predict human behavior with certainty. But yes, it’s crazy to think that the choices we make in private when we open our closets are affected by the great ol’ economy.
However, it sure makes sense to me that in a capitalist *hellscape* our resources are scarce. And meeting our basic needs will influence our decisions. It’s a tool of survival. And this includes safety too–nobody (at least, I think) is intentionally choosing a maxi skirt over a mini because they are consciously thinking about an economic recession or a trend towards conservatism. But it feels safer to take fewer risks in our day-to-day lives when so much around us is uncertain and remains out of our control. A desire for stability, and even to rely on ‘tradition,’ makes sense in a time where most people have to watch their spending on food and basic needs.
We can subconsciously choose to shelter ourselves or even conform to notions of ‘acceptability’ because we don’t want to lose our jobs, our homes, or our security–we can barely get those in the first place! But the way that creativity and self-expression survive throughout any historic or economic conditions, I think, is pretty predictable. I look forward to reading what they have to write in books about our current moment, in history, in fashion, in art, in everything. I thought I couldn’t examine any of these theories in my life at first, but my 3 maxi skirts and impulsively-purchased $40 lipstick could say otherwise. What about you? :)
