Ladies, Ladies... who wants to go in on these prediction markets?
- Maya Johnson
- Jul 27
- 6 min read
A note: For this article, I use the terms 'men' and 'women' to frame my opinion; but I recognize that gender is not a binary. My goal is to share observations I’ve made and opinions I’ve formed, while acknowledging that aspects can be shifted by sexual orientation, race, and gender identity.
I have a confession—I am an active Webkinz World user with a deluxe membership. How is this relevant? Well… it’s a path made of the barest connections but it got me to this conclusion: Kalshi, the gambling adjacent app, will not be getting the women’s share of the market. Let me walk you through what happened…
I was on the Webkinz subreddit, and saw that a spin-to-win wheel within the game was retiring an item that I needed to complete a room design. What devastating news! For context, you have a house in Webkinz and room decorating is a large portion of the game. Upon reflection though, it got me thinking about how I found myself there, slightly upset over a virtual item. Webkinz is not a game of risk, it’s a game of collection—you do nothing but win…something. There are rarely any negative consequences in Webkinz, in fact, I can only think of two and they don’t occur very often. These types of collection games are what many women are drawn to, and they often build up small niche communities and trading groups surrounding them.
Kalshi, like many brands before them, is looking to build community and create culture around the usage of their app and casual gambling to expand and capture the female market. If you have a TikTok account, you have seen the (very illegal) influencer ads on Love Island and the text says something along the lines of, “Watching Love Island knowing you’re about to make money off of Melanie and Sincere.” That’s just one example of its insidiousness. There’s also ads on betting on the weather, earthquakes, everything. The great news is that this expansion WILL fail!
From what I’ve observed about myself and friends of mine, women (and those who tend to have feminine traits as categorized by society) seem to be predisposed towards collection. That’s not to say men can’t collect (Pokemon cards exist). We also prefer to put less money up front - there’s an economic principle called the lipstick effect that connects purchases of smaller luxury goods during economic downturns. We can see this most recently with the horror Japan has wrought across the world with blind boxes. God, everything’s a mystery these days. Can’t buy anything straight up anymore. With this, and many other indulgences women have, there’s at least a return. If we’re not getting something out of it, why even try?
If you were curious, blind boxes originated in Japan as a new years tradition called fukubukuro, or lucky bags. The blind box began in the 1980s and was iterated on by the Chinese to shape the world as we know it today.
That’s not to say there’s no slippery slope when it comes to women, in fact I find it hard to see where they draw the line. The American Journal of Psychiatry published an article saying that traditionally at a casino, men prefer face-to-face or ‘strategic’ forms of gambling like blackjack while women prefer less interpersonal games akin to slots. Do women have a better understanding of risk versus reward? With slots (assuming feminine), the mindset I assume is that you already know you’re losing the money and it’s just fun to press buttons. With craps (assuming masculine), there’s more personal investment and a sense of betting on yourself to win. Is this a protective measure, since women may see gambling as an upfront loss? Is this giving them an edge with addiction prevention? Is it more or less sad to have the knowledge upfront, and passively throw away money? Is it bad that women aren’t betting on themselves?
There’s a camaraderie around gambling that men share, a risk that they can all take together. I chatted with several men on this topic to explore their thoughts, and the most thought provoking question I heard was, “Why not spend $5 to make more?” And I said, “Well, why would I?”
The truth is, to the both of us, we gave the most obvious response in the world. and therein is the answer.
Men see the potential and women see the loss. There’s probably something to be said around misogynistic cultures and how women likely still have a scarcity mindset due to us only fairly recently (in the grand scheme of things) obtaining rights that allow us to fully participate as citizens in society. Gambling is so ingrained in masculinity and class structure, so men will get into it because of their friends. When I asked why many of these men downloaded a sports betting or prediction markets app, the response was always, “my friends” and “they’re way worse than me.” They also proceeded to share some of the most ridiculous bets I’ve ever heard, one being, “if there was an earthquake over a 7.0 on the Richter scale from July to the end of 2026.” Apparently he only bet that because his friend had been betting on earthquakes for the past four months and winning every time.
Matter of fact, how did sports gambling pop back up in America? Doesn’t it feel recent? It was in fact banned in 1992, and surely the men were better for it. Blame New Jersey! In 2018, the Supreme Court (Murphy v. NCAA) ruled that the federal government overstepped their bounds and violated the 10th Amendment. The simplest way I can explain this, is it was the same result as the abortion law being overturned, the power went back to the states to regulate. And just a few years later, Kalshi was born.
While the house always wins, with Kalshi, who is the house? Kalshi is gambling masquerading as “prediction markets,” which could be called a cousin of stocks. Prediction markets are based on real world events, and people buy and sell contracts based on what they believe will happen. What you pay per contract is the % that the market thinks that the event will happen. Part of the reason this is not seen as gambling in the USA is because there is no “house,” you’re trading against other participants. There is also a constantly changing probability which allows you to pull out early.
The contract pays $1 if the event happens, $0 if it doesn't.
If a contract is trading at $0.80 = event has a 80% chance of happening.
If you buy at $0.80 and the event happens, you get $1.00 per contract.
If the event doesn't happen, you lose your $0.80.
If before the event happens, you see the price of a contract go down to $0.50, you can sell early and mitigate your losses.
To get here, Kalshi has sued and been sued, and is currently embroiled in so many lawsuits I could sit here and explain for five more paragraphs. Just know that Kalshi is an… audacious company. Donald Trump Jr is also on the board for them and another prediction market company called Polymarket.
Women are not entirely immune to the allures of traditional and online gambling. We show these tendencies in other ways, like the “holy grail” search in makeup. The main difference is we want a return. The return can be shit, but we still want it. When speaking with women on the topic, I met one girl who had bet on Kalshi on the NBA championships, and paid her rent with it. Of course, I had to know why she had gotten Kalshi in the first place. The answer, interestingly enough, was her boyfriend, who loved sports betting and Kalshi… and Draftkings…and Fanduel. Another girl I spoke to said she wanted to get into it because all of her (male) friends were into it. Most others said they would never bother. As per usual, the greatest enemy to women—when it comes to gambling—will be men. Altogether an unsurprising conclusion, but not one Kalshi seems to have come to. Word of mouth wins over every time!
It’s a real shame we are where we are when it comes to gambling, sports betting, and the like. I have a particular dislike for Kalshi (can you tell?) because of how they’re evading regulation. I suppose many may take from this that gambling won’t get you. Listen, Kalshi might not, but take a look around your home. Have you fallen prey to the blind boxes? TikTok shop coupons? Mystery bundles? It’s okay, I’m just as guilty as you. Again, I have a Webkinz Deluxe membership. Twins!
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